Human Exploration
Moderator:
Eddie Semones, (NASA/JSC Space Radiation Analysis Group), edward.j.semones@nasa.gov
Co-Moderator:
Masha Kuznetsova, (NASA/GSFC CCMC,) maria.m.kuznetsova@nasa.gov.
The forecasting of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) event is critical for mitigating crew health and safety on long duration human exploration missions. Mission operators need forecasts over at least 24-hour time window with low false alarm rates and high skills. There is a need to build an experimental system for SEP risk assessment and forecasting based on the most advanced understanding of SEP phenomena and that will incorporate state-of-the-art space weather models and innovative forecasting techniques. The system will include empirical and physics-based models with different level of complexity.
Essential Space Environment Quantities
> 10 MeV proton flux,
> 100 MeV proton flux.
SPE and ESPE
Solar Particle Event (SPE): > 10 MeV proton flux > 10 pfu
Energetic Solar Particle Event (ESPE): >100 MeV proton flux > 1 pfu
Big Three Questions:
1) Will there be an Event (SPE/ESPE)?
Probability Scorebaord
Magnetic Connectivity Tools
All Clear Forecasts
2) How intense will it be?
Proton Peak Flux Scoreboard
3) How long will it last?
Flux Time Series Scoreboard
Relevant Clusters
S3, H3, S2, H2