Team Title:
Long-term GCR modeling during Grand Minima
Team ID:
S1-06
Team Leads:
Claudio Corti NASA/NSF Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), USA corti@hawaii.edu
Keywords (Impact):
Human exploration
Keywords (Activity Type):
Understanding , Modeling
Introduction:
Grand Minima are extended periods of extremely low (or no) sunspot numbers.
While this might suggest that no solar activity is present during these periods, the time variation of cosmogenic isotopes, a proxy for the top-of-atmosphere galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, indicates that the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are changing in time and modulate GCRs.
In order to correctly interpret the time series of cosmogenic isotopes during Grand Minima periods, we need global heliospheric modeling, starting from the solar dynamo, to the surface flux transport, to the propagation of GCRs in the heliosphere.
This will help in understanding the relation between the internal magnetic state of the Sun and heliospheric conditions.
Objectives:
GCR modeling is usually approached in one of two ways:
1) bottom-up (ab initio models): transport coefficients are specified from first principles, using turbulence transport models and diffusion theory.
2) top-down (empirical models): transport coefficients are constrained by GCR observations.
It is currently hard to directly compare results from these two approaches and various modeling efforts, because we all use different assumptions and ingredients (fixed parameters, interplanetary conditions, boundary conditions, etc).
This team has the following goals:
- Systematic comparison of different modeling approaches
- Reaching consensus on which ingredients and assumptions are needed to properly interpret GCR data
- Full-stack GCR modeling: solar dynamo -> flux transport -> open magnetic flux and solar wind -> GCRs
Action Topics:
Extreme space weather events and their impacts, Impact on human exploration and inter-planetary missions , Solar activity indices for constraining long-term variability
Cluster with overlapping topics:
S2: Ambient solar magnetic field, heating and spectral irradiance, H1: Heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, H3: Radiation Environment in Heliosphere, G3: Near-end radiation and plasma environment
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