S3: Solar eruptions (seconds to tens of minutes)  

Moderator:

Sophie Murray (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland), Sophie.Murray@tcd.ie

Co-Moderator:

Stephanie Yardley (University of St Andrews, UK), sly3@st-andrews.ac.uk

Impact: 

Driver of space environment variability in heliosphere, geospace and other planets

Introduction: 

Adverse space weather is known to result from solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and associated solar energetic particle events (SEPs).

Objectives: 

Improve predictions of solar eruptions (flares, SEPs, and  CMEs) with better 

  • cadence,

  • latency,

  • magnitude estimates.

Challenges:

Reliable measurements of ARs (and filaments in the case of CMEs) on the solar surface and in the solar atmosphere are needed as a starting point to most forecasts. This will prove challenging for CME forecasts considering there are no direct measurements of the 3D structure of these regions, only magnetic field extrapolation models from the surface, which inherently contain significant inaccuracies. Improved latency will be challenging for forecasts in rapidly evolving ARs, although observations from missions such as the Lagrange at L5 will aid these efforts.

Action topics:

For list of action topics please click "Read more":