Developing predictive computational models of solar activity enable advance space weather preparedness.
The COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap touched upon the need to decipher long-term solar variability, including (past) extreme events, and assess their impact on planetary atmospheres. The Roadmap also made the following recommendation which is relevant in the context of predictive models of the solar cycle:
“Develop settings to transition research tools to operations. Establish collaborative activities to host, evaluate, and compare numerical models (looking at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center [CCMC] and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation [JCSDA] as examples, setup, staffed appropriately from research and user communities) and to assess quantitatively their skill at forecasting/specifying parameters of high operational value. Determine the suitability of research models for use in a space weather service center. Foster continuous improvement in operational capabilities by identifying the performance gaps in research and operational models and by encouraging development in high priority areas.”
