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Team title: Ambient Solar Wind Validation Working Team

Team ID: H1-01

Team Leads:

  • Martin Reiss (Space Research Institute Graz, Austria), martin.reiss@oeaw.ac.at (lead)
  • Manuela Temmer (University of Graz, Austria), manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at (co-lead)

Participants:
 

Charles N. Arge (Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard, USA), charles.n.arge@nasa.gov

Sergio Dasso (IAFE/DCAO-FCEN, UBA-CONICET, Argentina), sdasso@iafe.uba.ar

Padmanabhan Janardhan (Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India), Janardhan.Padmanabhan@gmail.com

Maria Kuznetsova (CCMC, NASA Goddard, USA), maria.m.kuznetsova@nasa.gov

Peter MacNeice (CCMC, NASA Goddard, USA), peter.j.macneice@nasa.gov

Richard Mullinix (CCMC, NASA Goddard, USA), richard.e.mullinix@nasa.gov

Rui Pinto (IRAP, France), rui.pinto@irap.omp.eu

Chiu Wiegand (CCMC, NASA Goddard, USA), chiu.wiegand@nasa.gov

Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC, USA), lan.jian@nasa.gov

Christian Möstl (Space Research Institute, Graz, Austria), Christian.Moestl@oeaw.ac.at

Evangelia Samara (Royal Observatory of Belgium and KU Leuven, Belgium),  evangelia.samara@kuleuven.be

Camilla Scolini  (KU Leuven, Belgium),   camilla.scolini@kuleuven.be

Barbara Perri (Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale - IAS, France), barbara.perri@ias.u-psud.fr

Karin Muglach (NASA/GSFC, USA), karin.muglach@nasa.gov

Mathew Owens (University of Reading, UK), m.j.owens@reading.ac.uk

Pete Riley (Predictive Science Inc., USA), pete@predsci.com

Rachel Bailey (Space Research Institute Graz, Austria), rachel.bailey@oeaw.ac.at

Keywords:

  • Modelling of the Evolving Ambient Solar Wind
  • Validation Analysis

Introduction:

Validation analysis plays a crucial role in space weather research and prediction. First and foremost to inform developers and users of space weather models about the strengths and limitations of the models, and also to provide an unbiased assessment of progress over time. The objective of this action team is to establish a central hub for the ambient solar wind modelling community, allowing developers and users to assess the accuracy of state-of-the-art solar wind model results seamlessly. To this end, we choose and agree on a set of comprehensive validation metrics from scientific literature and integrate them into the existing Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL; Raststaetter et al., 2019) framework. The CAMEL web app hosted by NASA's Community Coordinated Modelling Center is an interactive visualisation tool allowing developers and users to compare space weather and space science model output to observations. Specifically, we make use of the CAMEL framework to study the relationship between model output (e.g., solar wind speed, density, temperature, magnetic polarity, and magnetic sector boundary crossings) and observational data in terms of point-to-point statistics and more advanced event-based validation measures. 

To achieve our objectives, we split the action team into two subgroups operating in parallel. While Team A (Leads: Martin A. Reiss, Manuela Temmer) focuses on the analysis of solar wind models in past time intervals to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of state-of-the-art solar wind models, Team B (Leads: TBD) will focus on the application of the developed methods for real-time predictions with the purpose to establish an ambient solar wind scoreboard in the community. 

Objectives:

The objectives of this action team are summarised as follows.

  1. Collect and display modern science and prediction models of the evolving ambient solar wind.
  2. Evaluate how well these models predict the properties of the evolving ambient solar wind in the near-Earth environment.
  3. Provide a continuous validation analysis to trace the progress of ambient solar wind models. 
  4. Use the developed infrastructure to facilitate the validation of real-time prediction and to establish an ambient solar wind scoreboard.

Action topics (Team A):

  • Deduce a set of comprehensive validation metrics reflecting the community needs.
  • Integrate the deduced validation metrics in the CAMEL framework.
  • Discuss and select time intervals to study. 
  • Collect solar wind model output for the selected time intervals. 
  • Perform model assessment with selected validation metrics, and publish the results in the scientific literature.

Action topics (Team B):

  • Develop a pipeline allowing model developers to submit and visualise their solar wind predictions in real-time.
  • Compare solar wind predictions after each completed Carrington rotation.
  • Display the computed validation metrics in the CCMC online platform.

Clusters with overlapping topics:

S2, S3, H2

Links to external websites: 

CAMEL Framework: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/camel/
Real-time Validation Analysis: http://swe.uni-graz.at/index.php/services/eswf-verification