Team ID: H2-05
Team Title:
Sub-L1 Solar Wind Monitoring for Future Space Weather Predictions
Team Lead/s:
Emma Davies (Geosphere Austria, Austrian Space Weather Office, Graz, Austria) emma.davies@geosphere.at
Noe Lugaz (University of New Hampshire, USA) noe.lugaz@unh.edu
Keywords (Impact):
Space weather forecasting, upstream monitoring, sub-L1 monitors
Keywords (Activity Type):
Understanding , Requirements , Forecasting , Data Utilization , New Instrumentation A
Introduction:
Accurately forecasting the magnetic structure, plasma properties and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with an actionable lead time remains a major challenge in space weather forecasting. Increasing the lead time of forecast from the current 1 hour from L1 to several hours is essential for mitigating impacts to space and ground infrastructure at Earth. CMEs may undergo complex evolution during propagation, causing their global structure to deviate from the idealised magnetic flux rope structure often depicted. Their exact magnetic field configuration, including the shock and sheath regions of the CME, can thus only be determined through direct in-situ spacecraft measurements.
Deploying solar wind monitors closer to the Sun than current capabilities at L1 (sub-L1) presents significant advantages for space weather forecasting by providing earlier warnings and knowledge of the CME and sheath structure with significant lead-time to make more accurate predictions of potential geomagnetic impact. We aim at advancing our understanding of the requirements of sub-L1 measurements and how best to use this type of data to advance space weather forecasting.
Key questions:
How do current knowledge gaps in CME properties impact operational forecasting capabilities?
What implications do the identified gaps have for future sub-L1 mission designs?
How can the findings from current mission measurements influence future space weather monitoring strategies?
How can we best satisfy operational needs and improve scientific understanding in space weather research?
How can we prepare to get the most out of future sub-L1 missions, e.g. ESA HENON and SHIELD?
Objectives:
Knowledge gaps regarding the variation of CME properties with angular separation and evolution over moderate radial distances mean that the optimal orbit for an operational sub-L1 mission is not yet fully known. The goal of this action team is to use current and past mission data to demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of potential mission configurations, and develop how best to utilise data to make better space weather predictions in preparation for future sub-L1 missions including ESA HENON and SHIELD.
Objective 1: Spacecraft Observations
Compile periods of sub-L1 data from STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter and past missions (e.g. Helios) that can be used for training.
Objective 2: Location
Determine the best strategies/procedures to "propagate" sub-L1 measurements to Earth location.
Determine how the angular separation from the Sun-Earth line affects the forecast.
Objective 3: Further usage
How can sub-L1 measurements be combined with solar, coronal and heliospheric imaging?
How can sub-L1 measurements be used for data assimilation in MHD and ML models?
Action Topics:
Assessment and improvement of capabilities to predict CME arrival and impact at L1.
Cluster with overlapping topics:
Solar eruptions, Heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, CME structure, evolution and propagation through heliosphere