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Team title: Solar Indices and Irradiance

Team ID: S2-02

Team Leads:

Carl Henney (Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), USA), cjhenney@gmail.com

Karin Muglach (NASA GSFC, USA), karin.muglach@nasa.gov

Participants: 

Sam Schonfeld (NASA GSFC, USA), schonfsj@gmail.com

Alexei Pevtsov (National Solar Observatory, USA), apevtsov@nso.edu

Keywords (impact): Navigation/Communication, Satellite Drag, Atmospheric & Ionospheric Variability

Keywords (activity type):  Modeling, Forecasting, Community Scoreboard, Data Utilization

Introduction:

Solar XUV (0.1-10 nm), EUV (10-120 nm), and FUV (120-200 nm) radiation is absorbed in the Earth's upper atmosphere, driving ionization and heating of the neutral atmosphere. Current Ionosphere-Thermosphere (I/T) models are capable of using measured VUV (0 to 200 nm) spectral information to drive the models, as well as modeled EUV spectra based on solar indices (e.g. F10.7, Mg II core-to-wing ratio,  and SSN).

Discussion:

  • What are the input requirements of I/T forecast models?
    • And, do I/T models have requirements on input uncertainty?
  • How well do solar indices reproduce the observed variability needed to drive I/T models?
  • How can I/T models provide feedback to solar index forecast models?

Objectives:

  • Identify the current & near-term input requirements of I/T forecast models (e.g., daily 1-day forecasts of F10.7)
  • Identify solar indices to prototype real-time model forecast comparisons (e.g., 1-day & 3-day predictions of F10.7)
  • Identify past periods for retrospective comparisons (e.g., 1992 to 2019)
  • Identify meta-data & file format for community scoreboard (e.g. JSON vs a potpourri of text file formats)
  • Identify requirements for participation (e.g., forecast files publicly available by 23 UT each day)
  • Identify community solar index forecast models to include in real-time comparison
  • Identify baseline models to include in the scoreboard comparison (e.g., recurrence and persistence)

Near-term Goals:

  • Create a real-time comparison "Scoreboard" of publicly available model predictions of solar indices 
  • Prototype ensemble of community model predictions

 

Clusters with overlapping topics: G1, G2a, G2b, O1, O2, O3, S1, S2, S3-03

Link to team external website:

https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/solar-indices.php

 

 

Show/Hide Team S2-02 Participants

Carl Henney (AFRL - Air Force Research Laboratory, USA)
Karin Muglach (NASA/GSFC, USA)
Alexei Pevtsov (National Solar Observatory, USA)
Sam Schonfeld (NASA/GSFC, USA)
Henning Wulf (OHB System AG, Germany)