Team title: Synergy of observations, modeling and theory to build reliable long-term solar activity forecast 

Team ID: S1-04

Team Lead:

Irina Kitiashvili (NASA/AMES, USA)


Keywords (Impact):
Climate, Electric power systems, GICs, Navigation and/or Communications, (Aero)space assets functions, Human exploration

Keywords (Activity Type):
Understanding , Requirements , Modeling, Forecasting , Data Utilization , Roadmap


Building reliable forecasts of solar activity on the scale of activity cycles is a challenging task because of limitations of our knowledge of the global Sun dynamics, and incompleteness of observational data to describe the current and past global solar activity states. This task requires development of advanced data analysis techniques, theory, and modeling. Currently available long-term observational data cover different layers of the solar activity, from the deep interior to the solar wind and near-Earth environment. The data diversity allows us to expand our understanding of how solar activity manifestations are reflected in the different types of data. Synergetic analysis of these data together with theoretical and modeling developments will allow us to develop advanced capabilities to predict solar activity through combining the data and models using data assimilation and machine learning approaches. Reconstruction of the past solar activity is critical for model calibration, development of benchmarks and training data sets. 


The team will stimulate multi-instrument observational data analysis from space and ground-based observatories (including historical data), development of advanced data assimilation and machine-learning techniques, realistic global modeling in a collaborative synergetic environment. The team is organized to take advantage of expertise developed in different subfields and will be focused on building a platform for reliable long-term solar activity forecasts. 

Action Topics:

  • Extreme space weather events and their impacts,
  • Assessment of predictive models of solar activity,
  • Impact on human exploration and inter-planetary missions 

Cluster with overlapping topics:

  • S1: Long term solar variability,
  • S2: Ambient solar magnetic field, heating and spectral irradiance,
  • H1: Heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind,
  • G1: Geomagnetic environment

Link to external website: