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Team title: Worst-case scenario for extreme solar event

Team ID: S1-02

Team Lead:

Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu, Finland),


Fusa Miyake (Nagoya University, Japan), 

Hisashi Hayakawa (STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UK), 

Robertus Erdelyi (University of Sheffield, UK)

Keywords (impact): Climate, Electric power systems, GICs, Satellite/debris drag, Navigation and/or Communications

Keywords (activity type): Understanding , Modeling, Forecasting , Assessment 


Solar eruptive events may cause serious consequences for the terrestrial system, including hazards for space-based technologies, human beings and even ground-based systems. The era of direct solar studies covers several decades and does not allow to assess extremes of the solar events and answer questions like: -- What is an extreme event? -- How often can they occur? -- Does Sun have a limit to produce extreme events? These question can be answered using indirect proxy data either in the solar past (cosmogenic proxy on multi-millennial time scales) or a large statistic of sun-like stars. This team will be focused on studying this extreme-value statistic and set up probabilistic scenarios for extreme and worst-case events.


  • To study extreme solar events in the past (multi-millennial time scale) using proxy data.
  • To estimate super-flare probabilities using statistic of sun-like stars.
  • To provide a probabilstic model for extreme solar event occurrence.
  • To set up the worst-case scenario and its parameters.
  • To assess expected impacts of severe events.

Action topics:

  • Extreme space weather events and their impacts,
  • Impact on human exploration and inter-planetary missions;
  • Research on solar activity indices for constraining long-term, extremely hazardous solar variability

Clusters with overlapping topics:

S1: Long term solar variability,

S3: Solar eruptions,

H3: Radiation Environment in Heliosphere

Link to team external website: