Team Title:
CLEAR: All-Clear SEP Predictions
Team ID: H3-04
Team Lead:
Lulu Zhao (University of Michigan, USA), zhlulu@umich.edu
Keywords (Impact):
(Aero)space assets functions, Human exploration
Keywords (Activity Type):
Forecasting
Introduction:
The sparsity and high variability, in terms of intensity, duration, composition, and energy spectra of SEP events, the rapid arrival of the particles (often within minutes) following eruptive solar events (flares and coronal mass ejections, CMEs), and our limited understanding of the conditions leading to SEP events make them difficult to predict. The CLEAR team focuses on building a comprehensive prediction framework for solar energetic particles (SEPs) to timely and accurate predict low radiation periods ("all clear forecast") and the occurrence and characteristics of elevated periods. This will be accomplished by integrating empirical, first-principles based and machine learning (ML)-trained prediction models. We will develop, test and validate a self-contained, modular (``plug and play'') framework that integrates all the major elements impacting SEPs in the inner heliosphere: 4 pi maps of photospheric magnetic fields, corona, inner and middle heliosphere (0.1 AU to Jupiter's orbit), magnetic connectivity between the solar surface and any point in the inner/middle heliosphere, CME initiation, SEP seed population, shock acceleration and SEP transport.
Objectives:
We focus on developing capabilities for robust and quantifiable forecasts of space radiation levels of up to 24 hours. Specifically, the framework will: 1) provide pre-eruption probabilistic forecasts of SEP events, 2) nowcast and forecast the post-eruption SEP key parameters, including the time-dependence and maximum flux, onset, peak and end times, and the spectral characteristics, and 3) predict periods of SEP intensities below a preset threshold to issue all-clear forecasts.
Action Topics:
Building prediction framework of SEPs using empirical, machine learning, and physics-based methods
Cluster with overlapping topics:
S3: Solar eruptions, H2: CME structure, evolution and propagation through heliosphere, H3: Radiation Environment in Heliosphere
Link to external website:
https://science.nasa.gov/clear/