ISWAT Related Events at ESWW, November 18-22, 2019 ISWAT Fair Stand, Wednesday Nov 20, 17:15 - 18:30. (Manuela Temmer, Michelle Mendoza, Hermann Opgenoorth, Sean Bruinsma, Jon Linker) Posters First steps for the i-SWAT Initiative, Manuela Temmer[1], Masha Kuznetsova[2], Mario Bisi [3] [1]Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria (manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at), [2] NASA/GSFC, USA [3]RAL Space, Science & Technology Facilities Council, UK To make progress in improving current state-of-the-art solar wind and CME forecasting models, validation and scientific peer-review qualification is needed. + Read more iSWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) is an international, community driven effort and provides the required platform to challenge our models and to exchange our experience with peers in order to improve our work. iSWAT is also a network that fosters first contacts among interdisciplinary group members (Sun (S1-3), Heliosphere (H1-3), and Geospace (G1-3)). Cooperation will offer new perspectives and will make our models more efficient and progress them efficiently towards operational tools. Operational tools are not only meant to be used by (industrial) end-users, but particularly by peers in order to get a more complete understanding of the physical processes underlying CME and solar wind propagation. Showcasing the ISWAT Website, Michelle Mendoza[1], Masha Kuznetsova[1], Daniel Heynderickx[7], Mario Bisi[4, Hermann Opgenoorth[2], Anna Belehaki[3], Sean Bruinsma[5], Jon Linker[8], Ian Mann[9], Sophie Murray [10], Dibyendu Nandi [11], Manuela Temmer[12] [1]NASA GSFC, [2] Umeå University, [3]NOA, [4] UKRI STFC, [5 ]CNES, [6]ESA, [7] DH Consultancy, [8] PSI, [9] University of Alberta, [10] Trinity College Dublin, [11] Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, [12] University of Graz We will showcase the just released ISWAT website (http://www.iswat-cospar.org) built with a content management platform to serve as an online presence for the ISWAT community driven effort hosted by the COSPAR Panel on Space Weather. + Read more The website was created to represent ISWAT overarching goal to serve as a global hub for topical collaborations and focused on different aspects of space weather. The homepage main’s ISWAT image menu shows ISWAT clusters that cover Solar (S), Heliosphere (H) and Geospace (G) domains. Each cluster (S1-S3, H1-H4, G1-G3) shown in the image is links to dedicated webpages that contain information about cluster goals and links to entry pages of registered action teams. The “Join ISWAT” link contains 2 interactive forms for joining ISWAT mailing list and for registration of established and emerging international teams focused on different aspects of space weather. After the registration is confirmed by cluster moderator a link to a new team entry page is added to a submitted cluster site. A team start entry team page will contain information submitted during registration that may include a link to an external team page as an option. Another interactive form to join a registered ISWAT team will be added in the near future. Future planned additions include a Forum to create threaded discussion boards to encourage discussions on global coordination of space weather and invite community inputs to global space weather roadmap updates. The website will be eventually maintained and facilitated by the COSPAR Panel on Space Weather Chairs/Vice-chairs, ISWAT cluster moderators, and ISWAT team representatives. International Community Coordination in Space Weather, Masha Kuznetsova[1], Hermann Opgenoorth[2], Anna Belehaki[3], Mario Bisi[4], Sean Bruinsma[5], Alexi Glover[6], Daniel Heynderickx[7], Jon Linker[8], Ian Mann[9], Sophie Murray [10], Dibyendu Nandi [11], Manuela Temmer[12] [1]NASA GSFC, [2] Umeå University, [3]NOA, [4] UKRI STFC, [5 ]CNES, [6]ESA, [7] DH Consultancy, [8] PSI, [9] University of Alberta, [10] Trinity College Dublin, [11] Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, [12] University of Graz Understanding and predicting space weather and its impact on society is acknowledged as a global challenge. + Read more To address the need to join forces and to maximize return on efforts the COSPAR Panel on Space Weather created a network of International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT). The initiative is building upon established efforts by engaging existing international teams and facilitates emerging of new teams and leads. Action teams are organized into ISWAT clusters based on domain, phenomena or impact. ISWAT serves as a global hub for community coordinated topical focused collaborations and a global community voice for next generation of strategic planning. One of the near term goals is to establish a process for updating a COSPAR/ILWS space weather Roadmap [Advances in Space Research, 2015: DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023] and to transform the Roadmap into a living document. Another important tasks is to develop an extensive information technology infrastructure to support collaborative projects through a centralized database and an interactive web-based framework. The presentation will review the current status of the ISWAT initiative and plans for community-wide campaigns. Talks Tuesday November 19, 11:15 - 12:30, Mosane 789 SEP Scoreboard, M. Leila Mays[1], Masha Kuznetsova[1], Joycelyn Jones[1], Eddie Semones[2], Kerry Lee[2], Janet Barzilla [3,2], Steve Johnson[2], Kathryn Whitman[4,2], Phillip Quinn [3,2], Christopher Mertens [2], Ian Richardson [6,1], Mark Dierckxsens [7], Mike Marsh [8] [1] NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, [2] NASA Johnson Space Center [3] Leidos Exploration and Mission Support [4] University of Houston [5] NASA Langley Research Center [6] University of Maryland, [7] BIRA-IASB, [8] UK Met Office The CCMC has been facilitating real-time forecast verification projects led by the international space weather community to test predictive capabilities before event onset. These "Scoreboards" allow a consistent real-time comparison of various operational and research forecasts. + Read more The scoreboards also enable world-wide community involvement in real-time predictions, foster community validation projects, and ultimately help researchers improve their forecasts. The SEP scoreboard captures SEP onset, duration, peak flux, probability, all-clear, and overall profile. Recently in 2018, Johnson Space Center's Space Radiation Analysis Group has become involved in the SEP scoreboard as part of a 3-year project called ISEP. As part of this project variety of SEP models will become available on the SEP Scoreboard display in real-time in support of upcoming human exploration missions. Here we present the goals of the scoreboard and demo the first prototype of the interactive SEP scoreboard display. All SEP forecast modelers and experts worldwide are invited to advise or participate in this community-wide effort. (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php) ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Space Weather Prediction for Crew Protection during Near-Term Lunar Surface and Cis-Lunar Missions, Janet Barzilla[1,2], Kerry Lee[1], Eddie Semones[1], Steve Johnson[1,2], Katie Whitman[1,3], Phillip Quinn[1,2], M. Leila Mays[4], Masha Kuznetsova[4], Joycelyn Jones[4], Christopher Mertens[5] [1]NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas, USA, [2]Leidos Innovations Corporation, Houston, Texas, USA, [3]University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA, [4]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, [5]NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, USA As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station to the moon, Mars and beyond, the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center needs to update their approach for mitigation of crew radiation exposure due to large Solar Particle Events (SPEs). + Read more Some concerns for exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection offered by the Earth’s geomagnetic field as well as limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, NASA requires monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment in case of a need for the crew to take corrective action (i.e., seek shelter); to this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. SRAG’s concept of operations for exo-LEO missions will transition from nowcasting to an emphasis on improving forecasting capabilities which will provide the Flight Control Team with more information when responding to a space weather event. The Integrated Solar Energetic Proton Event Alert/Warning System (ISEP) represents a collaboration between SRAG and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at Goddard Space Flight Center to bring state-of-the-art space weather models from research and development at universities and small businesses to operational use at NASA (R2O). These models will have a user interface in the form of a model Scoreboard that will allow the SRAG console operator to view and compare the results from several different models simultaneously; this approach also encourages the console operator to understand the background and associated caveats of each model in order to formulate the best crew response to changes in the space weather environment. The ISEP team is incorporating an R2O approach to improve space radiation exposure mitigation capabilities in the exo-LEO mission era. Here we present the various tools that the ISEP project is focused on for the improvement of space weather forecasting for the near term human exploration missions. Thursday November 21, 11:15 - 12:30, Mosane 789 User-Oriented Model Validation Efforts for Radiation Belt Electrons: Internal Charging Applications, Y. Zheng [1], A. Kellerman [2], M.-C. Fok [1], L. Rastaetter [1], T. P. O’Brien [3], Y. Shprits [4], M. M. Kuznetsova [1], and other modelers [1] NASA/GSFC, [2] UCLA, [3] Aerospace Corp., [4] GFZ/UCLA In order to provide actionable information for the engineering and space weather operation communities, careful, standardized validation of current state-of-the-art space environment models' capabilities to produce the most pertinent quantities required for impact assessment have to be carried out. + Read more Based on previous spacecraft anomaly databases and analyses, the 1 MeV or even higher energy (>2 MeV) electron fluxes/fluences have been identified to be the essential space environment quantities closely related to internal charging effects (or the induced current density exceeds >100 fA/cm^2 behind 100 mils Aluminum shielding). In this presentation, initial model validation results will be shown. Model performance will be evaluated using different metrics. Such type of validation work is crucial for tracking progress/performance of the models over a long period of time and for achieving a more quantitative evaluation of space environment's impacts on space systems, with the ultimate goal of selecting a good performing model(models) to assist with space weather environment situational awareness, anomaly resolution and other types of space weather operations. Topical Discussion Meetings Scoreboard for Near-Earth Spacecraft Charging Environment: Initial Discussion and Planning Yihua Zheng (NASA/GSFC); T. Paul O'Brien (Aerospace); Yuri Shprits (GFZ/UCLA); Richard Horne (BAS); Natasha Yu. Ganushkina (Univ. of Michigan/FMI) Tuesday 19/11, 14:00-15:15 In order to facilitate transitioning space environment/space science models into operations, it is crucial to test and validate models for historical and realtime/forecasting modes. CCMC has initiated several realtime/forecasting method validation efforts, including the CME arrival time Scoreboard (running since 2013), Flare Scoreboard, SEP Scoreboaed, and others (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/scoreboards.php). This Topic Discussion Meeting calls for communities' participation in starting a Scoreboard for forecasting the near-Earth charging (surface and internal) environment. + Read more We will leverage discussion results from the ‘Space Radiation and Plasma Effects’ focus team from the “International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment” (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/) where two sets of physical quantities have been identified for assessing model performance, one from an engineering perspective and the other from a science perspective, as well as the experience from the SPACESTORM/SPACECAST (http://risk.spacestorm.eu/) and H2020 PROGRESS (https://ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/progress2/html/index.phtml) projects. Visualization/display of realtime quantities, measurements/data needed, which orbit(s) (e.g.,GEO, MEO) to start, choice of metrics, and other items will be discussed. Atmospheric Effects Topical Group - Supporting ISWAT Initiative Sean Bruinsma (CNES) Wednesday 20/11, 11:15-12:30 The high-level objectives of the Atmospheric effects TG are modeling the neutral atmosphere and understanding its (sources of) variability, and its effect on satellite drag. + Read more We will specifically focus on quantifying the effects due to the listed items below on satellite drag: What are the scales (time and space) of the density and wind variability due to EUV radiation, geomagnetic disturbances, and forcing due to disturbances propagating from lower altitudes? Which indices should be used to represent solar EUV/UV and geomagnetic activity? What is the accuracy of upper atmosphere density and wind models? How do we assess the models (data, metrics)? What is the accuracy of solar and geomagnetic activity forecasts? Which density data sets are pertinent to use in this study, i.e., for analysis and to improve models, and which information is missing. The COSPAR ISWAT initiative also addresses this activity, and this topical discussion meeting aims at informing and interacting with the community.
