H2-01: CME Arrival Time focus evaluation team

Team title: CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

Team ID: H2-01

Team Leads:

Christine Verbeke (KU Leuven, Belgium), cgjmverbeke@gmail.com

M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC CCMC, USA), m.leila.mays@nasa.gov

Participants:

T. Amertorfer (University of Graz, Austria), tanja.amerstorfer AT oeaw.ac.at

J. Andries (KU Leuven, ROB, Belgium)

S. Bingham (Met Office, UK),

H. Cremades (Universidad Tecnoloogica Nacional, Argentina)

M. Dumbović (Hvar Observatory, Croatia),

C. Kay, (NASA GSFC, USA),

L.K. Jian (NASA GSFC, USA),

P. Hess (Naval Research Laboratory, USA)

M. Mierla (ROB, Belgium)

Marlon Núñez (Universidad de Málaga, Spain), mnunez@uma.es

E. Palmerio (University of Helsinki, Finland)

P. Riley (Predictive Science, Inc, USA)

R. Steenburgh (NOAA, USA),

C. Scollini (KU Leuven, Belgium)

Aleksandre Taktakishvili (NASA GSFC, CUA, USA), aleksandre.taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov

Manuela Temmer (University of Graz, Austria), manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at

Angelos Vourlidas (JHU/APL, USA), angelos.vourlidas@jhuapl.edu

Evangelos Paouris (National Observatory of Athens, Greece), evpaouris@noa.gr

Talwinder Singh (University of Alabama in Huntsville, USA), talwinder.singh@uah.edu

Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC, USA), lan.jian@nasa.gov

Eric Adamson (CIRES CU Boulder / NOAA SPWC, USA), eric.adamson@noaa.gov

Kelly Korreck (Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, USA), kkorreck@cfa.harvard.edu

Introduction:

This team will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival time and impact for a set of historical events, with open communication with the community. The work is complementary to the CME Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time CME predictions and facilitate the validation of real-time predictions.
✳ Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction
✳ Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
✳ Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against

Objectives:

Catalog of metrics and how they relate to user needs and validation needs.
✳ Model assessments with selected metrics for selected time intervals.
✳ Online database of model inputs, outputs, and observations.
✳ Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction.

Publications:
Verbeke et al. (2018), Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events, Space Weather, 17. doi:10.1029/2018SW002046. [arXiv]

Link to team external website:

https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/helio-cme-arrival.php

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