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Team title: CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

Team ID: H2-01

Team Leads:

Christine Verbeke (KU Leuven, Belgium), 

M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC CCMC, USA),


This team will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival time and impact for a set of historical events, with open communication with the community. The work is complementary to the CME Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time CME predictions and facilitate the validation of real-time predictions. 
✳ Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction
✳ Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
✳ Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against


Catalog of metrics and how they relate to user needs and validation needs.
✳ Model assessments with selected metrics for selected time intervals.
✳ Online database of model inputs, outputs, and observations.
✳ Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction.

Verbeke et al. (2018), Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events, Space Weather, 17. doi:10.1029/2018SW002046. [arXiv]

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