Team title: CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team
Team ID: H2-01
Team Leads:
Christine Verbeke (KU Leuven, Belgium), cgjmverbeke@gmail.com
M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC CCMC, USA), m.leila.mays@nasa.gov
Introduction:
This team will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival time and impact for a set of historical events, with open communication with the community. The work is complementary to the CME Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time CME predictions and facilitate the validation of real-time predictions.
✳ Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction
✳ Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
✳ Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against
Objectives:
Catalog of metrics and how they relate to user needs and validation needs.
✳ Model assessments with selected metrics for selected time intervals.
✳ Online database of model inputs, outputs, and observations.
✳ Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction.
Publications:
Verbeke et al. (2018), Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events, Space Weather, 17. doi:10.1029/2018SW002046. [arXiv]
Link to team external website:
https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/helio-cme-arrival.php