Team ID: H2-06
Team Title:
Automatic detection and forecasting of ICME in situ properties
Team Leads:
Gautier Nguyen, (ONERA, France) gautier.nguyen@onera.fr
Hannah T. Rudisser (Geosphere Austria, Austrian Space Weather Office, Graz, Austria) hannah@ruedisser.at
Introduction:
Automatically detecting ICMEs in solar wind in situ data remains one of the key unsolved challenges in space weather research. This applies both to automatic generation of event catalogs and to the issuance of operational warnings. While experts continue to work towards a consensus on how to define ICME boundaries, alternative approaches, such as machine learning or other data-driven methods are emerging. Closely related to the problem of automatic detection is the subsequent task of forecasting potentially geoeffective properties of an ICME before its full passage is observed. While these tasks are typically taken over by fully numerical models as well as semi-empirical approaches, machine learning models serve as a promising alternative. Moving forward, the development, improvement and rigorous validation of such models will be crucial.
The goal of this team is thus to evaluate how well different models and methods can detect and/or forecast ICME’s potentially geoeffective properties for streaming solar wind in situ data. Such evaluations cover both historical and operational paradigms and are aimed to address both L1 and interplanetary spacecraft data.
Objectives:
- Provide reference ICME catalogs based on in-situ measurements from relevant spacecraft across the heliosphere
- Compile real-time datasets to support operational performance analysis
- Establish a standardized set of relevant metrics for both historical and operational evaluation
- Assess existing and newly developed methods
- Enable automatic catalog generation for existing and future missions
- Foster synergies between research outputs and operational applications
- Refine evaluations using validated catalogs from other expert teams
Action Topics:
Assessment and improvement of capabilities to detect ICME occurrence and forecast in situ properties at any point within the heliosphere/ measuring spacecraft.
Keywords (Impact):
Space weather forecasting, upstream monitoring, sub-L1 monitors
Keywords (Activity Type):
TBD
Clusters with overlapping topics:
H1: Heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, H2: CME structure, evolution and propagation through heliosphere