Team title: Heliospheric CME Observations to Improve Space Weather Model Validation

Team ID: H2-04

Team Lead:
David Barnes UKRI-UK Research and Innovation/ Science and Technology Facilities Council, UK david.barnes@stfc.ac.uk

Keywords (Activity Type):
Modeling, Forecasting , Data Utilization , Assessment

Introduction:
The goal of this team is to use heliospheric CME observations to better inform and constrain CME propagation models. This is with a focus on Heliospheric Imager observations and data from upcoming missions like PUNCH and Vigil, as well as in-situ CME signatures below 1au.

Many CME propagation models are initialised using observations within a few solar radii – from coronagraphs and magnetographs – and then used to forecast Earth-impacts and geo-effective parameters downstream at 1au. We aim to establish the physical CME parameters that can be modelled “in-flight” by wide-angle imagers and in-situ measurements and how we may use them to better constrain CME propagation models.

This is already an active area of research ad we hope to encourage a community effort in order to establish a set of guidelines to accurately quantify the benefits heliospheric CME observations and how they may be of use to space weather modellers in order to improve CME forecasting efforts.

Objectives:
(1) Establish the most informative CME parameters that can be accurately quantified “in-flight” from heliospheric observations that are of use to CME propagation models

(2) Compile an archive of established heliospheric CME catalogues and case-studies to better constrain CME propagation models

(3) Establish a plan for how we can utilise upcoming missions (PUNCH), and potential future missions (Vigil-HI, KASA/L4, Solar Polar-orbit Observatory); with an emphasis polarised brightness measurements and on multi-spacecraft techniques

Action Topics:
Analysis, modeling and prediction of interplanetary space (solar wind, CMEs) and their solar sources (active regions, flares, coronal holes), Definition and quantification of uncertainties for the observational input parameters to CME propagation models , Assessment and improvement of capabilities to predict CME arrival and impact at L1.

Cluster with overlapping topics:
H1: Heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, H2: CME structure, evolution and propagation through heliosphere

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