Keywords (Activity Type):
Understanding , Requirements , Modeling, Forecasting , Assessment
The orientation and strength of the magnetic field of Earth-impacting CMEs are typically the most important factors in determining the severity of the ensuing space weather effects. Despite this, the majority of space weather forecast do not include the magnetic field, simply due to lack of available, rigorously validated models. This team will assess the current state of the field, develop the metrics to be used to test the models, and begin validation studies.
This team will first identify the metrics by which we can assess the quality of a model’s fit to an observational profile. Not only must a single (or multiple) parameters be chosen for calculating the accuracy, we must consider additional factors such as the appropriate time resolution and how to combine information from the vector components of the magnetic field.
The next step is to establish a set of well-observed CMEs with in situ profiles from spacecraft near Earth. This includes identifying the most plausible boundaries for each case, as well as the association with a coronal CME. The CME Arrival Time and Impact working group is establishing a set of coronal properties for a large set of CMEs, which will allow for standardized inputs for the arrival time models. Like arrival time modeling, the magnetic profile models are sensitive to the position and orientation of a CME, so use of the same standardized inputs will allow us to identify the difference between magnetic field models rather than differences introduced by their users.
Next, we will identify the models for in situ magnetic field profiles that are currently available, or likely to be within the near future. We will begin by identifying the general strengths and weaknesses of each model, particularly with respect to future applicability to actual predictions, before proceeding with a systematic study using the agreed-upon metrics, CMEs, and CME parameters.
Analysis, modeling, and prediction of CME magnetic field at L1
Cluster with overlapping topics:
S3: Solar eruptions, H1: Heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, H2: CME structure, evolution and propagation through heliosphere
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