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Team title: CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

Team ID: H2-01

Team Leads:

Christine Verbeke (ROB - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium), 

M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC CCMC, USA),


This team will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival time and impact for a set of historical events, with open communication with the community. The work is complementary to the CME Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time CME predictions and facilitate the validation of real-time predictions. 
✳ Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction
✳ Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
✳ Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against


Catalog of metrics and how they relate to user needs and validation needs.
✳ Model assessments with selected metrics for selected time intervals.
✳ Online database of model inputs, outputs, and observations.
✳ Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction.

Verbeke et al. (2018), Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events, Space Weather, 17. doi:10.1029/2018SW002046. [arXiv]

Link to team external website:

Show/Hide Team H2-01 Participants

Eric Adamson (CIRES CU Boulder / NOAA SPWC, USA)
Clayton Allison (NASA/JSC/SRAG - Space Radiation Analysis Group USA)
Tanja Amerstorfer (Space Research Institute - SRI, Graz, AUSTRIA)
Jesse Andries (WMO - World Meteorological Organization)
Laura Balmaceda (GMU - George Mason University, USA)
Luke Barnard (University of Reading, UK)
David Barnes (UKRI STFC RAL Space, UK)
Suzy Bingham (UK Met Office, UK)
Hebe Cremades (Universidad Tecnoloogica Nacional, Argentina)
Mateja Dumbovic (University of Graz, AUSTRIA)
Phillip Hess (NRL - Naval Research Laboratory, USA)
Christina Kay (NASA/GSFC, USA)
Kelly Korreck (Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, USA)
Carlos Larrodera Baca (University of Alcala, SPAIN)
P K Manoharan (Arecibo Observatory: Florida Space Institute at University of Central Florida, USA)
M. Leila Mays (NASA/NSF Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), USA)
Marilena Mierla (ROB - Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM)
Marlon Núñez (University of Malaga, SPAIN)
Erika Palmerio (UC Berkeley - University of California Berkeley)
Evangelos Paouris (National Observatory of Athens, GREECE)
Pete Riley (Predictive Science Inc., USA)
Nishtha Sachdeva (University of Michigan, USA)
Tarik Mohammad Salman (University of New Hampshire, USA)
Camilla Scolini (University of New Hampshire, USA)
Talwinder Singh (University of Alabama in Huntsville, USA)
Robert Steenburgh (NOAA/SWPC, USA)
Dibyendu Sur (University of Colorado / SWx TREC, USA)
Aleksandre Taktakishvili (NASA/NSF Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), USA)
Manuela Temmer (University of Graz, AUSTRIA)
Benoit Tremblay (Colorado University Boulder, USA)
Christine Verbeke (KU Leuven, BELGIUM)
Angelos Vourlidas (JHU/APL, USA)
Jie Zhang (GMU - George Mason University, USA)