Team Title:
GEM Geomagnetic Disturbances Modeling Challenge
Team ID: G1-08
Team Lead:
Dogacan Ozturk, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA, dsozturk@alaska.edu
Xueling Shi, Clemson University, USA, xuelins@clemson.edu
Maria Kuznetsova, NASA/NSF/CCMC, USA, maria.m.kuznetsova@nasa.gov
Keywords (Impact):
Electric power systems, GICs
Keywords (Activity Type):
Understanding, Modeling, Data Utilization
Introduction:
The "GEM Geomagnetic Disturbance Modelling Challenge" team will focus on planning and implementing a community-wide modelling challenge centred on ground magnetic field perturbations (GMDs) and geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Modelling challenges have been a cornerstone of the GEM community, providing a quantitative, systematic, and transparent evaluation of models developed by members of the community. Since the initiation of the GEM Global Geospace Circulation Model (GGCM) modelling challenge in 2008, significant advancements have been made in numerical models' ability to characterize ground magnetic disturbances and their underlying drivers. These improvements stem from:
- Enhanced physical process modelling leading to more accurate representations of geospace dynamics.
- Increased computational performance enabling higher-resolution simulations.
- Growing datasets allowing for more robust model validation and uncertainty quantification.
- Advancements in the accessibility of machine learning algorithms, improving predictive capabilities.
In recent years, NASA has supported multiple Drive Centers and Centers of Excellence, fostering innovation in modelling and forecasting. Additionally, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has played a crucial role in hosting and evaluating previous modelling challenges, providing an established infrastructure to facilitate a new challenge event. Given these advancements, it is timely to launch a new modelling challenge within the ISWAT framework.
Objectives:
By building on lessons learned from previous GEM modelling challenges, this initiative aims to not only quantitatively evaluate model performance but also assess models' capability to characterise key drivers, spatial and temporal extents, and impacts of identified phenomena, while helping end users take mitigating actions ahead of predicted GMDs/GICs. Through broad collaboration across the COSPAR GMD/GIC research community, this challenge will drive innovation, improve predictive capabilities, and strengthen our collective understanding of space weather effects. The objectives and expected outcomes from this effort are:
- Assessing the current state of ground magnetic field perturbations, geoelectric field variations, and GIC modelling.
- Identifying strengths and areas for improvement in existing models.
- Encouraging collaboration between model developers, data providers, and operational users.
Action Topics:
Understand and quantify spatial and temporal features of geomagnetic variability in response to external and internal drivers
Understand and quantify impact of geomagnetic variability on critical infrastructure
Quantification of extreme GIC characteristics
Cluster with overlapping topics:
t, S2G-01: Building a Community Portal for Great Helio Storms
Link to external website:
https://gem.epss.ucla.edu/mediawiki/index.php/FG:_Understanding_the_causes_of_geomagnetic_disturbances_in_geospace_for_hazard_analysis_on_geomagnetically_induced_currents